Spatial Diffusion Patterns of Cholera in Katsina State, Nigeria (2010–2023): A Geographical Analysis of the Outbreak Dynamics and Public Health Implications

Abstract

This study examines the spatial diffusion patterns of cholera in Katsina State, Nigeria, from 2010 to 2023. The cholera record was collected from the the Department of State Epidemiology and the Incident Manager at EOC, where it contains the locations of patients as latitude (X) and longitude (Y) and the date of onset of the disease (Z), utilising Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) and Linear Trend Surface (LTS) analyses to map the spread of the disease. The research identifies various diffusion patterns, including expansion, relocation, mixed, and hierarchical diffusion, highlighting the complex nature of cholera transmission. Findings reveal that cholera outbreaks often originate in specific regions before spreading to neighbouring areas, with notable outbreaks in 2010, 2014, 2015, 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023. The 2010 outbreak demonstrated expansion diffusion, while the 2014 outbreak exhibited relocation diffusion. The 2015 outbreak showed a mixed diffusion pattern, combining elements of expansion and relocation, and the 2020 outbreak followed a hierarchical (cascade) diffusion pattern. The 2022 outbreak displayed fixed diffusion, with the disease originating and ending in areas around Charanchi LGA. The study underscores the importance of timely interventions and targeted public health responses to contain cholera outbreaks. Spatial analysis tools such as IDW and LTS proved valuable in identifying high-risk areas and guiding resource allocation for effective disease control. The findings emphasize the need for improved reporting systems, continuous monitoring, and addressing geographical, social, and environmental factors to reduce the burden of cholera in the Katsina.